Estelle, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

732
FXUS64 KLIX 290706
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
206 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Weak ridging is expected to remain over Texas today while a weak
upper low remains over Georgia. That may change slightly on Monday,
as the Georgia low may sink southward into the eastern Gulf by late
in the day. At least through Monday, that probably will not have a
large impact on the local weather.

Precipitable water values are forecast to remain between 1.75 and
2.00 inches. That is likely to produce a convective pattern that
resembles the last several afternoons. Most convection allowing
models have convection getting going around midday, but with
convective temperatures in forecast soundings in the mid and upper
80s this morning, can`t rule out it occurring earlier. One
difference today as compared to the last few days is that low level
winds look to be more consistently southwesterly at around 10 knots,
which could alleviate the threat of storms sitting over one location
somewhat. Dissipation of thunderstorms over land has consistently
occurred prior to 10 PM CDT for the last several nights.

High temperatures likely to top out in the 88 to 93 range as
afternoon convection develops. Areas that see storms develop earlier
may struggle to get much above 90. Overall, expect heat index values
to remain below advisory criteria over the next 36 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Upper troughing is expected to extend from the Great Lakes to the
eastern Gulf for the middle of the week before getting pushed
eastward again at the end of the week. The 00z GFS brings it
somewhat further westward than the ECMWF, which would enhance the
heavy rain threat somewhat with precipitable water values near or
above 2 inches. Precipitation chances will remain fairly high
through at least Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday before ridging
builds eastward into the area from Texas and lowering PoPs to much
closer to climatology. As precipitation chances lower, high
temperatures will increase a bit, with highs potentially in the
middle 90s from Wednesday or Thursday through the holiday weekend.
Heat Advisories could be necessary at the end of the week if
current trends continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Generally VFR conditions across all terminals early this morning.
An isolated SHRA cannot be ruled out along the remnants of an
outflow boundary that moved onshore around 05z. MVFR ceilings are
possible as sunrise approaches through mid-morning. Main issue
will be development of SHRA/TSRA. While a few SHRA could occur
even during the morning hours, main threat of TSRA likely to be
from about 17z through 23z, and will use a mix of PROB30 and TEMPO
as appropriate.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Winds are expected to develop a more southwesterly, or even westerly
component over the next few days as the center of the surface high
shifts a bit to the east. Wind speeds will generally remain less
than 15 knots, with the more general concern daily/nightly rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, which would produce locally higher winds
and seas. Most frequent timing will be late night and morning hours
over the open waters, and afternoon and early evening over the lakes
and sounds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  72 /  70  20  60  30
BTR  91  75  92  75 /  80  20  60  20
ASD  91  74  90  75 /  70  30  70  30
MSY  91  78  92  78 /  80  30  70  20
GPT  89  75  89  75 /  70  50  80  50
PQL  90  73  89  73 /  70  60  80  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW